The Chronicles and Musings of an Aspiring Writer
Once again, I made the attempt to write a 50,000 word in the space of the month of November, and failed.
My damn mind keeps getting in the way with little things like: Hey idiot you gotta big gapping hole in your plot.
Maybe next year.
Though in the mean time, I’m not giving up the idea of writing a novel. Just going to take it on my own schedule and not having to worry about any set of rules governing how I write it.
Being a political junkie/hack/veteran, how could I sit on the sideline and not offer up some info on this election? So, here are some of the things I’ll watch for and think might happen tomorrow on Election Day. Any and all predictions made here are done so with ZERO guarantee any use of this for betting purposes are done at your own risk.
Feel free to send this on to anyone else you want to.
* The Exit Polls will be near meaningless. With a huge turnout of voters voting early, the sample of voters the exit pollers will interview could skew away from the actual vote total. I’m certain network news execs have begun to figure out how to call the Election for many of the 30+ states with early voting. Early voting could make for a longer time to call a state for one candidate.
* Missouri will take forever to call. Why? Because it takes a long time for St. Louis to count their votes. The one exception to this is if Obama has a big lead from the rest of the state, then it would be safe to say the state will go for the Democrat.
* Watch the Senate. It’s pretty much a given the Democrats will gain at least 20 seats in the House. The bigger drama will lie across the Capitol with the Senate. Can the D’s get to 60, enough votes to nullify a filibuster. I expect the Dems to get to 57 easily. The next three will be tough.
* Kansas will stay Red. This will long be a deep Republican state, yet keep your eyes on the results. The Congressional Delegation will all get re-elected. (Though watch the 4th District—Wichita and surrounding counties. If it is tight enough, don’t be surprised if Don Betts runs again if the seat is open.) What will be interesting is if the Obama coat tails extend down to the legislature. If the Democrats in Kansas want to have a chance at more input in drawing redistricting maps, they need to pick up seats this year and 2 years from now. I would not be surprised to see the House Dem caucus go above 50 and the Senate maybe picking up a seat or two. Any of these victories will show that the national party’s investment in organizing in all states can pay off.
* McCain’s Strategy was foolish. John McCain, despite the results if he were to win, made the worst choice possible when he decided to focus more on a national media campaign and less on a state-by-state ground campaign. Yes, a campaign’s message is important. It does not amount to anything if you don’t get voters to the polls. McCain just this weekend started to publicly ask for people to volunteer to Get Out The Vote (GOTV). Obama seemingly focused on GOTV since day 1. If you watched most of the proceedings on the night Obama accepted the Democratic Party’s nomination, his Colorado State Director made several appeals in between speeches for people to volunteer and contact fellow voters. The challenge for the Democrats will be keeping this machine in place for the next election and beyond. If they do, it will keep the party rolling for a long time. Also, McCain picked early on to run a national campaign; Obama went for an Electoral College campaign, the difference will be huge and it will show tomorrow night.
* Early Voting will show it’s importance. So far almost 300,000 voters voted before Election Day…in Kansas. Yes, in a state where the election doesn’t matter much, at least on the national stage. Secretary of State Ron Thornbugh estimates 1.36 million voters will turnout tomorrow. Almost a quarter of voters decided to not stand in line on November 4th. Advance Voting is very convenient for voters. It is also a great way for a campaign to control their vote totals. You know when someone has voted. If you work it right, you can help them vote. (wink, wink, nod, nod)
* This Election is as much about the Man Barack Obama as it is about punishing the Republicans. Hopefully even the most vitriolic anti-Obama person has to admire his life story and acknowledge his skills as a politician. Yet, he is at the levels he is in part because the electorate has grown tired of the Republican Party. Much of the fatigue rests with the President, as the Democrats have controlled Congress for two years now. The party failed to realize that the message it espouses is not the one for the economic times we are in now. That deafness will lead them to getting shellacked tomorrow in the voting booth.
* Final Predictions
President – Obama
Electoral College: Obama 340 McCain 198
Senate – 59 Democrats with a Run-off in Georgia. (I hope the peach state is ready for the flood of Obama staffers.)
House – 258 Democratic members
Way too many swooshing maps to keep track of on cable news channels resulting in a mass vertigo outbreak.
I’m gonna try it for real this time.
What is that you ask?
NaNoWriMo which stands for National Novel Writing Month. It is an annual “competition” to write 50,000 words for a novel in just the 30 days of November.
So far I have 3,760 words written. Still got a ways to go.
Wish me luck.
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